SitiWanMahani - Barat dilaporkan menghantar “Isyarat yang jelas” kepada pem-bangkang Syria bahawa Presiden Assad perlu kekal di tempatnya untuk mengelakkan radikal Islam Al-Qaeda dari mendapat kelebihan dalam konflik dan menjadikan Syria sebagai pusat global bagi jihad.
Dengan peringkat baru rundingan damai ditetapkan untuk memulakan Januari 22 di Geneva, pentadbiran Amerika Syarikat membuat perubahan penting dalam sikap mereka terhadap Bashar Assad dan pentadbiran Alawi beliau.
Dalam eksklusif, agensi berita Reuters melaporkan bahawa pemberontak Syria, yang sebelum ini mendakwa mereka hanya akan menghadiri rundingan damai jika Presiden Assad segera meletak jawatan, dipaksa untuk bersetuju dengan beliau yang tinggal di pejabat dan juga mungkin mengambil bahagian dalam pilihan raya presiden akan datang.
Washington yang diterajui pakatan anti-Assad telah dengan berat hati membuat kesim-pulan bahawa tanpa Assad Syria tidak lama lagi akan bertukar menjadi tumpuan utama bagi radikal Islam yang akan menggunakan negara itu, yang bersempadan dengan Israel, untuk menyebarkan pengaruh Al-Qaeda di seluruh seluruh Tengah Timur.
Pada sesuatu mesyuarat kumpulan teras ‘Friends Of Syria’ dan kepimpinan kanan di sempadan Syria Gabungan Kebangsaan yang berlaku 13 Disember di UK, pembangkang Syria berhadapan dengan keadaan yg dihadapi bahawa Barat memerlukan Assad.
“Rakan-rakan Barat kami menjelaskan di London yang Assad tidak boleh dibenarkan untuk pergi sekarang, kerana mereka fikir huru-hara dan pengambilalihan pengganas akan terjadi,” kata seorang anggota kanan yang tidak dinamakan Gabungan Kebangsaan Syria, berhampiran dengan pegawai-pegawai dari Arab Saudi, memberitahu Reuters.
Sumber yang sama juga mengesahkan bahawa penaja Barat pemberontak Syria tidak akan tidak keberatan jika Assad mengambil bahagian dalam pilihan raya akan datang presiden apabila jangka semasa tamat pada 2014.
‘US doesn’t mind if Assad stays’ - report
The West is reportedly sending “clear signals” to the Syrian opposition that President Assad should stay in place to prevent Al Qaeda-linked radical Islamists from gaining upper hand in the conflict and turning Syria into a global center for jihad.
With new stage of peace negotiations set to begin Jan. 22 in Geneva, the US administration is making a pivotal change in their attitude toward Bashar Assad and his Alawite administration.
In an exclusive, the Reuters news agency reports that Syrian rebels, who previously claimed they would only attend peace talks if President Assad immediately resigned, are being forced to agree on him remaining in office and even probably taking part in the next presidential elections.
The Washington-led anti-Assad coalition has reluctantly come to the conclusion that without Assad Syria would very soon turn into a focal point for Islamist radicals who would use the country, bordering Israel, to spread Al-Qaeda’s influence across the whole of the Middle East.
At a meeting of the core group of the Friends of Syria and the senior leadership of the Syrian National Coalition that took place December 13 in the UK, the Syrian opposition was confronted with a fait accompli that the West needs Assad.
“Our Western friends made it clear in London that Assad cannot be allowed to go now, because they think chaos and an Islamist militant takeover would ensue,” an unnamed senior member of the Syrian National Coalition, close to officials from Saudi Arabia, told Reuters.
The same source also confirmed that Western sponsors of the Syrian rebels would not even mind if Assad takes part in the next presidential elections when his current term expires in 2014.
Ahli-ahli kumpulan jihad Barisan Al-Nusra (Members of jihadist group Al-Nusra Front (AFP Photo – think IN pictures @1WORLDCommunity)
“Ada yang tidak kelihatan di fikiran jika dia berjalan lagi tahun depan,” kata sumber kepada Reuters, tertanya-tanya sama ada Barat telah lupa bahawa Assad “menyerang dgn gas beracun kaumnya sendiri.”
Negara-negara anggota 11 kawan2 pada kumpulan Syria dikeluarkan perisytiharan, sebagaimana sebelum menuduh Presiden Bashar Assad menjadi bertanggungjawab bagi keadaan semasa dengan jihad yang mengalir ke Syria. Walau bagaimanapun, dokumen itu juga perubahan retorik ke arah radikal Islam, dengan mendakwa bahawa mereka “melemahkan Geneva . . . memproses dan mengancam keutuhan wilayah Syria dan juga keselamatan antarabangsa dan serantau.”
Pusingan rundingan untuk menyelesaikan krisis Syria aman akan diadakan di Geneva pada 22 Januari, dan ternyata bahawa Washington menggesa pemberontak Syria untuk membuat konsesi yang amat menyakitkan.
Ketua pihak pembangkang harus “lebih kreatif” di Geneva dan menerima keperluan meninggalkan pegawai Alawi dalam rejim Assad dalam jawatan penting sebuah kerajaan peralihan masa depan, seorang diplomat Timur Tengah kepada Reuters.
“Bagi Geneva untuk menghasilkan perkiraan yang boleh diterima ke Amerika Syarikat dan Russia, pembangkang perlu menerima mengambil bahagian dalam pentadbiran peralihan dengan kehadiran Alawi yang kuat,” kata diplomat itu, melahirkan harapan bahawa sekurang-kurangnya Assad akan berkurangan kuasa, sama ada sebagai presiden atau tidak.
Diplomat itu juga memberi amaran kepada pemberontak bahawa “Jika pembangkang menolak apa-apa perjanjian, mereka akan kehilangan kebanyakan Barat dan hanya mempunyai Arab Saudi, Libya dan Turki ditinggalkan di pihak mereka.”
Seorang lagi anggota pembangkang Syria berkata bahawa Moscow dan Washington sebenarnya bekerja “seiring” sekarang, cuba untuk memastikan pihak berkuasa Syria semasa bertanggungjawab bagi tentera dan keselamatan perkhidmatan supaya mereka kemudian boleh menyatukan kuasa-kuasa dengan pembangkang sederhana untuk menangani kumpulan Al-Qaeda yang telah membanjiri Syria.
“Some do not even seem to mind if he runs again next year,” the source told Reuters, wondering whether the West has forgotten that Assad “gassed his own people.”
The 11 member countries in the Friends of Syria group issued a declaration, as before accusing President Bashar Assad of being responsible for the current situation with jihadists flowing into Syria. However, the document also changes its rhetoric towards radical Islamists, claiming that they “undermine the Geneva ... process and threaten Syria's territorial integrity as well as international and regional security.”
The next round of negotiations to solve the Syrian crisis peacefully will take place in Geneva on January 22, and it appears that Washington is urging the Syrian rebels to make extremely painful concessions.
The opposition leaders should be “more creative” in Geneva and accept the necessity of leaving Alawite officials in the Assad regime in key positions of a future transition government, a Middle East diplomat told Reuters.
“For Geneva to produce an arrangement acceptable to the United States and Russia, the opposition would have to accept taking part in a transitional administration with a strong Alawite presence,” the diplomat said, expressing the hope that at least Assad would have diminished powers, either as president or not.
The diplomat also warned the rebels that “If the opposition rejects such a deal, they will lose most of the West and only have Saudi Arabia, Libya and Turkey left on their side.”
Another member of the Syrian opposition said that Moscow and Washington are actually working “in tandem” now, trying to keep the current Syrian authorities in charge of the army and security services so that they could later unite forces with the moderate opposition to deal with the Al-Qaeda-linked groups that have flooded Syria.
Gambar edaran yang dikeluarkan oleh Arab Syria News Agency (SANA) mendakwa menunjukkan mayat pejuang pemberontak selepas diserang hendap oleh tentera kerajaan di bandar perindustrian Adra luar Damsyik, pada 21 Julai, 2013 (AFP Photo/SANA – think IN pictures @1WORLDCommunity)
Wakil pembangkang bercakap menentang anti-Assad Sunni menuju pihak berkuasa peralihan di Syria, kerana orang itu tidak akan mampu untuk mengetuai perjuangan menentang Al-Qaeda di Syria, sesuatu yang kedua-dua Rusia dan Amerika Syarikat yang tertarik.
"Walaupun Assad diketepikan dan ketua Sunni pihak berkuasa peralihan beliau akan mempunyai kuasa kerana bukan Washington ataupun Moscow kelihatan mahu menamat-kan kawalan Alawi lalui tentera dan peralatan keselamatan,” katanya.
Seorang pegawai kanan Barat kepada Reuters bahawa Rusia dan Amerika Syarikat telah membincangkan calon-calon untuk kerajaan peralihan Syria masa depan tetapi apa-apa yang konkrit telah dipersetujui setakat ini.
U-turn dalam persepsi Barat Assad telah didahului oleh Golongan ini Barisan Islam di Syria membuat percubaan yang tidak berjaya untuk mengambil di bawah kawalan saluran bantuan tidak membawa maut Amerika dan British diberikan kepada pemberontak Syria melalui Turki dikawal oleh pemberontak yang sederhana (moderate rebels).
Kurang dari seminggu yang lalu, Golongan ini dari Al-Nusra Front menawan bandar Adra kira 20 kilometer ke utara Damsyik dan menjalankan pembunuhan beramai-ramai kejam pada (brutal massacre) orang2 awam.
Lebih 80 orang di Adra, ada kalanya keluarga-keluarga, telah disembelih dengan kejam (brutally slaughtered).
Rusia-Amerika Syarikat dekat-mendekati mengenai isu Syria
Pada bulan Ogos, berikutan beberapa siri serangan kimia di Syria, Presiden Amerika Syarikat, Barack Obama Washington mendapati dirinya dalam kedudukan yang janggal, kerana dia telah berjanji campur tangan ketenteraan terhadap rejim Syria jika kerajaan Assad telah terbukti telah menggunakan senjata itu.
Tetapi selepas pendirian yang kuat oleh Rusia pada sidang kemuncak G20 di St Petersburg, memenangi sokongan meluas di kalangan negara-negara lain untuk penyelesaian secara aman krisis Syria, pentadbiran Obama terpaksa memikirkan semula strateginya dalam konflik Syria.
Selepas Presiden Rusia Vladimir Putin dilabel serangan kimia sebagai “diadakan” oleh pembangkang Syria (Syrian opposition), pentadbiran Obama yang diterima banyak daripada pelucutan simpanan stok Syria (weapons stockpiles) senjata kimia yang dicadangkan oleh Moscow.
Selepas pentadbiran Obama ditarik balik (pulled back) daripada ancaman untuk mengebom rejim Assad untuk “pembunuhan rakyat sendiri,” perselisihan di antara Washington dan paling dekat Timur Tengah sekutunya, Arab Saudi dan Turki yang menyo-kong Sunni pemberontak anti-Assad, mula berkembang.
Pada bulan Oktober, ahli-ahli keluarga diraja Arab Saudi mengugut (threatened to rethink) untuk memikirkan semula perkongsian strategik mereka dengan Amerika Syarikat berikut keengganan Amerika untuk menyokong rancangan Riyadh kepada Syria dan Iran.
Kemudian ada laporan bahawa Arab Saudi dan Israel (cooperated) memberi kerjasama dalam persekutuan kemudahan terhadap Iran.
Menurut Reuters, Turki memutuskan untuk membekalkan militan depan Islam dengan senjata langsung.
Di tengah-tengah perselisihan semakin meningkat di antara Washington dan sekutu tradisional Timur Tengah, pembangkang Syria, yang disokong oleh Arab Saudi, Libya dan Turki, adalah tidak mungkin untuk melancarkan cabaran yang berjaya untuk rejim Syria yang disokong oleh Iran, Rusia dan China, pakar percaya.
The opposition representative spoke against an anti-Assad Sunni heading the transitional authorities in Syria, because such a person would be unable to head a battle against Al-Qaeda in Syria, something that both Russia and the US are interested in.
“Even if Assad is sidelined and a Sunni heads a transitional authority, he would have no power because neither Washington nor Moscow appears to want to end the Alawite control over the military and security apparatus,” he said.
A senior Western official told Reuters that Russia and the US are already discussing candidates for a future transitional Syrian government, but that nothing concrete has been agreed so far.
The U-turn in Western perception of Assad was preceded by jihadists of the Islamic Front in Syria making an unsuccessful attempt to take under control the channels of American and British non-lethal aid provided to the Syrian rebels via Turkey controlled by moderate rebels.
Less than a week ago, jihadists from the Al-Nusra Front captured the town of Adra some 20 kilometers north of Damascus and carried out a brutal massacre of civilians.
Russia-US rapprochement on Syria issue
In August, following a series of chemical attacks in Syria, US President Barack Obama Washington found himself in an awkward position, because he had promised a military intervention against the Syrian regime if Assad’s government was proved to have used such weapons.
But after a strong stand by Russia at the G20 summit in St. Petersburg, winning widespread support among other nations for a peaceful solution for the Syrian crisis, the Obama administration was forced to rethink its strategy in the Syrian conflict.
After Russia’s President Vladimir Putin labeled chemical attacks as “staged” by the Syrian opposition, the Obama administration accepted a deal of stripping Syria of its chemicalweapons stockpiles proposed by Moscow.
After the Obama administration pulled back from its threat to bomb the Assad regime for “gassing his own people,” the rift between Washington and its closest Middle East allies, Saudi Arabia and Turkey supporting the Sunni anti-Assad rebels, began to grow.
In October, members of the Saudi Arabian royal family threatened to rethink their strategic partnership with the US following America’s reluctance to back up Riyadh’s plans for Syria and Iran.
Then there were reports that Saudi Arabia and Israel cooperated in an alliance of convenience against Iran.
According to Reuters, Turkey decided to supply the Islamic front militants with weapons directly.
Amid a growing rift between Washington and its traditional Middle East allies, the Syrian opposition, backed by Saudi Arabia, Libya and Turkey, is unlikely to mount a successful challenge to the Syrian regime backed by Iran, Russia and China, experts believe.
