SitiWanMahani - Menghadapi silang kata yang paling penting ekonomi sejak kejatuhan Kesatuan Soviet, Kiev telah diselaraskan sendiri lebih dekat dengan Rusia, dan telah digantung persiapan untuk menandatangani perjanjian perdagangan EU.
Rusia telah memberi amaran kepada satu langkah ke arah barat Ukraine akan “perdagan-gan membunuh diri” (trade suicide) dan menyebabkan berbilion-bilion dalam pendapa-tan perdagangan hilang (lost) dan yang menyertai Rusia yang dipimpin Kesatuan Kastam adalah lebih bermanfaat.
Ukraine akan “memulihkan dialog aktif” dengan Kesatuan Kastam dan CIS, sebagai menteri ekonomi dan asing yang dicadangkan Ukraine, Rusia, dan Kesatuan Eropah mewu-judkan sebuah suruhanjaya 3 pihak untuk memperbaiki dan memperkukuhkan hubungan perdagangan.
Presiden Dmitry Peskov jurucakap berkata Rusia mengalu-alukan keputusan Ukraine secara aktif membangunkan hubungan dengan Moscow, dan Putin berkata beliau tidak sepenuhnya terhadap persatuan Ukraine dengan EU.
Putin berkata beliau menyokong idea rundingan perdagangan 3 hala, tetapi hanya sehingga Ukraine menandatangani perjanjian persatuan dengan EU.
“Kami menyokong ini, tetapi hanya sebelum keputusan dibuat. Bagaimana kita boleh mengadakan rundingan mengenai isu-isu yang telah dipersetujui dan disahkan ? Apakah peranan kita dalam apa-apa rundingan ? Ia adalah sama dengan sifar, tetapi kita pasti bersedia untuk apa-apa perbincangan jika ia adalah besar,” kata Putin Rabu di Moscow.
Putin victorious as Ukraine postponed ‘trade suicide’,
halts talks with EU . . .
Facing its most important economic crosswords since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kiev has aligned itself closer to Russia, and has suspended preparations to sign an EU trade deal.
Russia has warned a step west towards Ukraine would be "trade suicide" and result in billions in lost trade revenue and that joining the Russia-led Customs Union is more beneficial.
Ukraine will “restore an active dialogue” with the Customs Union and the CIS, as economic and foreign ministers proposed Ukraine, Russia, and the EU create a tri-party commission to improve and strengthen trade relations.
President's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia welcomed Ukraine's decision to actively develop ties with Moscow, and Putin added he wasn't completely against Ukraine's association with EU.
Putin said he supports the idea of trilateral trade talks, but only up until Ukraine signs an association agreement with the EU.
"We favor this, but only before decisions are made. How can we hold negotiations on issues that have already been agreed upon and endorsed? What is our role in such negotiations? It's equal to zero, but we are surely prepared for such a discussion if it is substantial," Putin said Wednesday in Moscow.
Gambar ini ##Presiden Ukraine Yanukovych di tebing beredar di media sosial hari ini (This photo of #Ukraine President #Yanukovych on a ledge circulating on social media today (Christopher Miller) – think IN pictures @1WORLDCommunity)
Pada mulanya, menandatangani Perjanjian Persatuan antara Ukraine dan EU jadual berlaku pada sidang kemuncak Vilnius itu pada 28 November, tetapi pada 21 November parlimen menolak rang undang-undang yang akan membolehkan Tymoshenko untuk melancong ke luar negara untuk rawatan.
Pada hari Khamis Ukraine gagal untuk meluluskan undang-undang yang akan membe-baskan bekas Perdana Menteri Geografi Tymoshenko - blok utama penghalang dalam rundingan pada Kiev itu menandatangani perjanjian persatuan perdagangan dengan EU.
Walau bagaimanapun, Presiden Yanukovych berkata beliau masih mempunyai mata beliau pada integrasi dengan EU.
“Kami masih mempunyai sedikit untuk pergi ke atas. Kami tidak takut kesukaran dan yakin bahawa kami akan terus ke arah integrasi Eropah,” kata Yanukovych pada Rabu.
“Jika tidak ada perjanjian pada bulan November, Putin akan telah memenangi keme-nangan psikologi membanggakan - semua orang yang dalam EU akan mahu mengelakkan itu, dan Yanukovych tuduhan itu,” Dimitry Trenin memberitahu RT menjelang keputusan.
Initially, the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and EU was schedule to take place at the Vilnius summit on November 28, but on November 21 the parliament rejected a bill that would allow Tymoshenko to travel abroad for treatment.
On Thursday Ukraine failed to pass a law that would free former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko - the key stumbling block in the negotiations on Kiev’s signing the association trade agreement with the EU.
However, President Yanukovych said he still had his eye on integration with the EU.
“We still have a bit to go to the top. We do not fear difficulties and are confident that we will continue towards European integration,” Yanukovych said on Wednesday.
“If there is no deal in November, Putin will have won a resounding psychological victory – most everyone in the EU would want to prevent that, and Yanukovych counts on it,” Dimitry Trenin told RT ahead of the decision.
Yulia Tymoshenko (Reuters/Gleb Garanich – think IN pictures @1WORLDCommunity)
Tarikh akhir cuti penjara
Tarikh akhir untuk Ukraine untuk memenuhi semua kriteria yang diperlukan untuk menyertai persatuan perdagangan EU pada mulanya ditetapkan untuk 18 November, dan kemudian kemudiannya berpindah ke 21 November.
Ukraine berharap untuk bertindak sebagai “Jambatan (bridge)” antara Rusia dan EU, Presiden Viktor Yanukovych berkata awam banyak kali.
Rusia menyatakan dengan jelas tidak akan ada “Jambatan” jika Ukraine melangkah barat, mereka akan terpaksa melepaskan “hubungan eksklusif” mereka dengan Rusia.
Satu duta EU telah ke Kiev semua November keadaan bersedia untuk Ukraine untuk mema-suki persatuan perdagangan EU di Sidang Kemuncak Perkongsian Timur dalam Vilnius, tetapi perjanjian itu seolah-olah kurang dan kurang kemungkinan sebagai bekas Perdana Menteri kekal di dalam penjara.
Kegagalan untuk melepaskan Tymoshenko akan menghalang Ukraine dari menyertai dalam Vilnius, kerana ia adalah satu isyarat negara ini tidak bersedia untuk memperbaiki amalan keadilan mereka kepada standard Eropah.
Tymoshenko telah dipenjara pada tahun 2011 untuk menangani gas dia ditaja dengan Rusia pada tahun 2009 dan dilihat sebagai bermotifkan politik.
Kesatuan Kastam Putin
Ekonomi yang besar Ukraine ($156 billion) dan kaya dengan sumber tanah telah kedua-dua Moscow dan Brussels memikat untuk tawaran perdagangan eksklusif.
Jika Kiev memilih untuk meneruskan keahlian EU, ia akan menggagalkan rancangan besar Presiden Rusia Vladimir Putin untuk mewujudkan satu blok perdagangan untuk menyaingi Kesatuan Eropah, yang setakat ini termasuk Belarus dan Kazakhstan. Armenia juga telah menyatakan hasratnya untuk menyertai orbit perdagangan Rusia itu.
Kedua-dua tawaran yang menarik. Dengan menyebelahi dengan Rusia, Ukraine terus memu-puk hubungan baik dengan jiran yang mengimport hampir 25% peratus daripada eksport Ukraine.
Bergerak ke barat ke Eropah akan menjimatkan pengeksport Ukraine hampir $490 million lebih 10 tahun, 95% peratus daripada barang-barang yang akan mempunyai duti kastam sifar, menurut Suruhanjaya Eropah.
Eropah telah memikat Ukraine ke keahlian bersekutu perdagangan bagi 4 tahun yang lalu, dan telah mencipta pertempuran geopolitik dengan Rusia, yang telah menghukum Ukraine barat langkahnya .
Menteri-menteri EU sepatutnya membuat keputusan pada hari Selasa jika mereka akan menaja keahlian EU persatuan perdagangan Ukraine, dan duta EU khas telah ke Kiev bulan ini.
Nekat bahaya banyak politik yang telah dilaksanakan yang membawa kepada perjanjian perdagangan. Ukraine mengancam untuk berhenti membeli gas Rusia dan Moscow men-cetuskan spekulasi akan ada lagi perang gas antara kedua-dua negara-negara jiran, yang akan meninggalkan Ukraine tanpa gas asli yang cukup untuk bertahan musim sejuk.
Prison break deadline
The deadline for Ukraine to meet all criteria necessary to join the EU trade association was initially set for November 18, and then was later moved to November 21.
Ukraine had hoped to act as a "bridge" between Russia and the EU, President Viktor Yanukovych said many times publicly.
Russia made it clear there will be no "bridge" if Ukraine stepped west; they would have to give up their "exclusive relationship" with Russia.
An EU envoy has been in Kiev all of November preparing conditions for Ukraine to enter the EU trade association at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, but the deal seemed less and less likely as the former Prime Minister remained in prison.
The failure to release Tymoshenko would block Ukraine from joining in Vilnius, as it’s a signal the country isn’t ready to improve their justice practices to a European standard.
Tymoshenko was jailed in 2011 for a gas deal she brokered with Russia in 2009 and is seen as politically motivated.
Putin’s Customs Union
Ukraine’s sizable economy ($156 billion) and resource-rich land had both Moscow and Brussels courting for exclusive trade deals.
If Kiev chooses to pursue EU membership, it will foil Russian President Vladimir Putin’s great plan to create a trade block to rival the EU, which so far includes Belarus and Kazakhstan. Armenia has also expressed its intentions to join Russia’s trade orbit.
Both deals are appealing. By siding with Russia, Ukraine continues to foster good relations with its neighbor that imports nearly 25 percent of Ukraine’s exports.
Moving west to Europe would save Ukrainian exporters nearly $490 million over 10 years, as 95 percent of goods would have zero customs duties, according to the European Commission.
Europe has been courting Ukraine into an associate trade membership for the past four years, and has created a geopolitical battle with Russia, who has punished Ukraine for its move west.
EU ministers were supposed to decide on Tuesday if they will sponsor Ukraine’s EU trade association membership, and a special EU envoy has been in Kiev this last month
Much political brinkmanship has been executed leading up to the trade deal. Ukraine threatened to stop buying Russian gas, and Moscow stoked speculation there would be another gas war between the two neighbors, which would leave Ukraine without enough natural gas to last the winter.
Reuters/Yuri Maltsev (think IN pictures @1WORLDCommunity)
Gas
Ukraine mengadu tentang harga yang tinggi bagi gas Rusia, yang rata-rata sekitar $ 400 bagi setiap 1,000 meter padu, salah satu harga tertinggi di Eropah. Ukraine kini mengimport lebih separuh daripada gas dari Rusia, tetapi kedua-dua negara sedang ber-usaha untuk mengu-rangkan perniagaan.
Lebih sedekad yang lalu Ukraine dan Rusia telah cuba untuk memutuskan hubungan gas rumit mereka. Gazprom telah membina maze saluran paip memintas Ukraine gas peng-hantaran ke Eropah, dan Ukraine telah menarik (wooing) syarikat-syarikat asing dalam usaha sama di syal dan rizab luar pesisir.
Selepas Naftogas , syarikat minyak dan gas milik kerajaan Ukraine dan berkata, ia telah memotong hubungan dengan Gazprom, Yanukovich bercanggah dengan kenyataan yang mengatakan beliau “hoped for a comprise” dengan Rusia.
Bekas Perdana Menteri Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko menandatangani kontrak ‘pra-bayar’ dengan Gazprom pada tahun 2009 dan kemudiannya dipenjarakan atas tuduhan penya-lahgunaan kuasa.
Sejak kontrak pra-bayar telah ditubuhkan, Ukraine telah mengadu bagi harga gas mahal.
Di Ukraine adalah hampir untuk menandatangani perjanjian perdagangan persatuan EU di Vilnius pada akhir November, satu langkah yang boleh mencetuskan satu siri baru pepe-rangan perdagangan dan gas dengan Rusia.
Rusia dan Ukraine melancarkan 2 peperangan ke atas harga gas di musim sejuk tahun 2006 dan 2009 (yang berlangsung 3 minggu) dalam tuntutan Ukraine adalah lewat mem-bayar.
Hutang dan yang Turunkan
Rizab mata wang Ukraine susut nilai dan defisit besar-besaran telah meletakkan ia ber-hampiran dengan kejatuhan ekonomi, dan bailout IMF antara $10-15 billion nampaknya banyak dan banyak mungkin.
Rizab kerajaan Ukraine begitu habis mereka mungkin tidak lagi dapat menyimpan Naftogaz bertahan, dan mungkin terpaksa mencari pembeli asing.
Tinjauan semakin teruk telah mendorong 3 agensi besar penarafan untuk menurunkan pandangan mereka pada Ukraine.Fitch diturunkan Ukraine jangka panjang asing mata wang tempatan penerbit lalai penarafan 'B -' daripada penurunan 'B' berikut S & P penarafan hutang kepada 'B -' ke tahap sampah yang sama seperti Greece dan Cyprus. Moody menurunkan penarafan kepada Caa1 dari B3 pada September meletakkan mereka di “risiko mungkir yang sangat tinggi”.
Pengurus wang Amerika Syarikat Franklin Templeton telah meningkat $ 5 bilion hutang antarabangsa Ukraine, hampir ke-5, Financial Times melaporkan.
Rusia memegang sebahagian besar daripada hutang negara Ukraine.
Gas
Ukraine complains about high prices for Russian gas, that average around $400 per 1,000 cubic meters, one of the highest prices in Europe. Ukraine currently imports more than half of its gas from Russia, but both countries are making efforts to cut down on business.
Over the last decade Ukraine and Russia have been trying to sever their complicated gas relationship. Gazprom has been building a maze of pipelines to circumvent Ukraine to delivery gas to Europe, and Ukraine has been wooing foreign companies in joint ventures in shale and offshore reserves.
After Naftogas, Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company, said it was cutting ties with Gazprom, Yanukovich contradicted the statement saying he “hoped for a comprise” with Russia.
Former Ukraine Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko signed a ‘pre-pay’ contract with Gazprom in 2009 and was later jailed on charges of abuse of power.
Since the pre-pay contract was established, Ukraine has complained for expensive gas prices.
Ukraine’s was close to signing a EU trade association agreement in Vilnius in late November, a move which could have triggered a new series of trade and gas wars with Russia.
Russia and Ukraine waged two gas wars over prices in the winters of 2006 and 2009 (which lasted 3 weeks) over a claim Ukraine was late in paying.
Debt and Downgrades
Ukraine’s depreciating currency reserves and massive deficit have put it close to economic collapse, and an IMF bailout of between $10-15 billion seems more and more likely.
Ukraine’s government reserves are so depleted they may no longer be able to keep Naftogaz afloat, and may be forced to find a foreign buyer.
The worsening outlook has prompted the big three rating agencies to downgrade their outlook on Ukraine.Fitch downgraded Ukraine’s long-term foreign local currency issuer default rating to ‘B-‘ from ‘B’ following S&P’s downgrade of its debt rating to ‘B-‘ to the same junk level as Greece and Cyprus. Moody’s cut its rating to Caa1 from B3 in September putting them at “very high default risk”.
US money manager Franklin Templeton has picked up $5 billion of Ukraine’s international debt, nearly a fifth, the Financial Times reported.
Russia holds a significant portion of Ukraine’s sovereign national debt.
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